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关注加密价值,遗漏2018年区块链的主要发展/Focus on Crypto Values Misses Key Blockchain Developments in 2018

译文/Translated:

Block.one主席Rob Jesudason写到:“围绕区块链和数字资产建设主流基础建筑获得巨大进步。”

最近比特币及其他加密货币价格暴跌已经引起大众对加密货币未来的讨论。加之今年初早期的剧烈缩减,此次事件被诽谤者抓住机会,成为其构陷加密货币失败的又一“证据”。

这确实在市场引起了恐慌。2018年可能会载入史册,因为这一年加密货币市场热度退却,所有加密资产等级都进行了重大重估。但若它真成为历史性的一年,这一年也见证了监管者和公司双方都采取了重要举措,参与加密货币活动,这预示着加密资产级别终将作为合法储藏被广泛使用。

Gemini发行的Gemini dollar stablecoin便是这巨大进步的一环,这笔交易获得了Cameron和Tyler Winklevoss的赞助。该货币对外宣称由美元支撑,受到纽约州金融服务署(NYDFS) 的监督及监管,NYDFS被称为“加密活动最严格的监管机构”。此外还有由fintech公司Paxos发行的另一个款相似代币,也受到NYDFS监管,加密金融公司Circle宣称其也正在建立一款新的“美元币(USD Coin)”。11月16日金融时报的标题称“Stablecoin是加密行业的下一场豪赌。”随着越来越多这类监管资产入市,对真实机构投资的欲望也会越盛。

除开代币本身,交易也开始接受监管。Coinbase便活跃在最前线,这是一家获得许可并接受监管的加密货币交易所,它展现出了稳固的安全标准。5月,它收购了资产管理公司Keystone Capital,此举促进了机构对加密货币的使用,现在该交易所正在为机构投资者引进专业级的交易工具。10月,在其最新一轮融资之后,Coinbase被估值80亿美元,这是这个迅速发展行业中一次重要的里程碑。

而金融机构本身也传递出了积极信号,它们更加正视这个行业。Fidelity Investments是基金管理公司,有超过2500亿美元的资产在其管理之下,它宣布有意启动Fidelity数字资产服务(FDAS),这是一家以加密货币为核心的附属机构,将聚焦于客户对比特币或其他加密资产的渠道需求。

同时,高盛已成为第一家启动数字资产交易操作的银行,其他包括摩根大通、摩根士丹利在内的银行也已经开始雇佣人员,预计也在准备跟随其后。

由于加密资产使用的机构屏障渐落,所有事实迹象都指向了持续的机构化。从全球看,监管虽然缓慢,但确实给加密货币市场带来了清晰度和透明度。同时,对托管和流动性的担忧正待解决:Fidelity的FDAS将提供为机构提供的“资产托管”服务,同时高盛和美国洲际交易所(纽约证交所的母公司)也提出了解决方案。后者的Bakkt服务将提供“机构、商家和消费参与者的数字资产可扩展入径”。

加密货币怀疑论者遗漏的另一件事便是在金融市场诸多案例中,价格暴涨之后通常紧随着的是修正。加密货币市场没理由例外。但今年最近一个加密市场暴跌的确反映在了许多其他资产上。

较为严重的波动例子便是德意志银行和通用电气的股价波动,Turkish lira的交易价波动以及上证综合指数的波动。

事实上2018年的价格波动大多可能是受到宏观经济和地缘政治背景的影响,与它受到任何资产特定问题的影响一样。随着美联储加息,华盛顿与北京贸易战的焦灼,不确定性正普遍引发市场危机。正如预料般,10年美国国债收益全年上涨。

除去这些动荡不安,此时也适合思考此前的市场“修正”如何在近年结束。dot.com于世纪之交垮塌之后,随着谷歌、百度、Facebook、阿里巴巴等技术巨头的自我建立,我们见证了技术领域一次漫长的修复期。同样,2008年金融危机后,股票市场跌入动荡的牛市之中,目前仍未完全消除其影响。近十年绩效最佳的公司部分为互联网公司,另一些则来自新兴领域,例如生物技术。

此处,我们要学习的是重要行业以及重要公司对宏观经济动荡至关重要,并能抵御其影响,这也适用于金融资产。的确,市场垮塌之处通常也是伟大的公司大步突破之时。对于投资者而言,这也是一次机会,却识别哪些行业能持久生存下去,去声援新兴的全球领导者们。

现下,与加密货币及区块链相关的公司正处于一个新兴行业中。这个行业有复兴数字商业、提升安全性和保护身份的潜力,这股潜力为市场注入了活力。而不确定性仍然围绕其中,日常生活中将如何使用它?它又如何能在监管之下找到繁荣的道路?

可以确定的是,为此提供答案并与监管者一同达成合理的监管框架的公司极可能获得成功。而另一件无可置疑的事是赋予区块链稳定增长的基础设施正在建立当中。区块链这个行业将持续发展下去,而2018年打下的基础为其持续发展保驾护航。


原文/Original:

Significant steps have been taken toward building mainstream infrastructure around blockchain and digital assets, writes Block.one President Rob Jesudason

The recent dramatic fall-off in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has sparked considerable debate about their future. Compounding an earlier sharp retrenchment at the beginning of the year, the decline has been seized on by detractors as further evidence of a more permanent demise in cryptocurrencies.

This has caused real consternation in the market and 2018 may well go down in history as the year that saw the heat come out of the cryptocurrency market, with a major revaluation of all crypto asset classes. But if it does, it should perhaps also be seen as the year that saw both regulators and companies taking significant steps to engage with cryptocurrencies, heralding what should eventually be greater adoption of this asset class as a legitimate store of value.

One such step is exemplified by the launch of the Gemini dollar stablecoin by Gemini, an exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Marketed as being backed by the US dollar, this new coin is supervised and regulated by The New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), which has been described as “crypto’s toughest regulatory regime.” It joins a similar coin from the fintech company Paxos, which is also to be regulated by the NYDFS, and the crypto finance company Circle said it was also establishing a new “USD Coin.” As a November 16 Financial Times headline declared, “Stablecoins are crypto sector’s next big bet.” As more regulated assets like these come into play, the appetite for real institutional investment increases.

Away from the coins themselves, exchanges are also beginning to receive regulatory blessing. Lead among them is Coinbase, a licensed and regulated cryptocurrency exchange that has demonstrated robust security standards. In May, it hastened the adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutions by acquiringthe asset management firm Keystone Capital and is introducing professional-grade trading tools for institutional investors. In October, after its latest funding round, it was valued at US$8 billion — a significant milestone for this burgeoning industry.

And among the financial institutions themselves, there have also been positive indicators, that they taking this sector increasingly seriously. Fidelity Investments — a fund manager with over US$2.5 trillion in assets under management — has announced its intention to launch Fidelity Digital Asset Services (FDAS), a cryptocurrency-focused subsidiary that will look to channel demand from customers into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has become the first bank to set up a digital asset trading operation, while others including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanleyhave made hires that suggest they are preparing to follow suit.

All indications, in fact, point to continued institutionalization as structural barriers to adoption fall. On a global level, regulation is slowly but surely bringing clarity and transparency to the cryptocurrency markets. Simultaneously, concerns around custody and liquidity are being addressed: Fidelity’s FDAS will include “asset custody” services aimed at institutions, while Goldman Sachs and The Intercontinental Exchange (owner of the New York Stock Exchange) have also proposed solutions. The latter’s Bakkt service will offer “a scalable on-ramp for institutional, merchant, and consumer participation in digital assets.

Another thing the cryptocurrency sceptics miss is that in many examples across financial markets, a boom in prices is often followed by a correction. Cryptocurrency markets have no reason to be any different and indeed the latest sharp falls in crypto have been mirrored in many other assets this year.

Significant volatility for example has been seen in the share prices of Deutsche Bank and General Electric, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, and the performance of the Shanghai composite index.

The fact is that price volatility in 2018 has probably been impacted as much by the macro- economic and geo-political backdrop as it has by any asset-specific concerns. With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates and Washington on the precipice of a trade war with Beijing, uncertainty is causing risk to come off markets in general. As might be expected, 10-year US Treasury bond yields have been rising all year.

Looking beyond these fluctuations, it’s also useful to consider the pattern of how previous market “corrections” have played out in recent years. After the dot.com crash at the turn of the century, we saw a long recovery in the tech sector as today’s tech giants of Google, Baidu, Facebook and Alibaba established themselves. Similarly, after the 2008 financial crash, the stock market went on a surging bull run that hasn’t fully abated. Some of the best-performing companies in the last decade have been internet companies, while others have come from emerging industries such as biotech.

The lesson here is that key industries — and key companies — matter and can withstand macroeconomic volatility, and the same can be said for financial assets too. Indeed, the point at which markets collapse is often the moment when great companies find their stride. For investors, it’s an opportunity to identify industries that will endure, and to champion emerging global leaders.

Right now, companies involved with cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are part of an emerging industry. It’s an industry whose potential to revolutionize digital commerce, enhance security and protect identity has already energized markets. But uncertainty remains around how it will be adopted into everyday life, and how it can be regulated in a way that allows it to thrive.

What is certain is that companies that provide answers to the adoption question and work with regulators to arrive at sensible governing frameworks will likely succeed. What is also clear is that the infrastructure that will put blockchain on a stable growth trajectory is already shaping up. Blockchain is an industry that will endure — and the foundations laid in 2018 will go a long way toward iron-cladding that endurance.

原文链接/Original URL:

https://medium.com/block-one/focus-on-crypto-values-misses-key-blockchain-developments-in-2018-19c321f092ae

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